National power supply and demand analysis chart in 2018

  (1) electricity consumption forecast: the consumption growth of the whole society is expected to remain at 5%-6% level for 2018-2020 years.

  In the past 2006-2017 years, the annual growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society has been decreasing step by step, and the consumption growth rate of the second industry has been closely related to each other. Although the electricity consumption of the second industry is decreasing year by year, it is still around 70%, which is the absolute main force that affects the electricity consumption of the whole society. The main body of the second industry is manufacturing, of which electricity consumption is high: textile industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, rubber and plastic products, non-metallic mineral products, black metal smelting and calendering, smelting and calendering, gold products, general-purpose and special equipment manufacturing. Industry, transportation, electrical and electronic equipment manufacturing industry.

  Power consumption in sub industry and growth rate of year on year (100 million kwh)

  Related reports: "2018-2024 years of investment strategy planning and future development report of China's power engineering market" released by Chi Yan consulting

  The proportion of electricity consumption in the third industry and urban and rural residents increased year by year. In the first ten years of twenty-first Century, China was in the stage of rapid economic development. The proportion of electricity consumption in the second industry increased rapidly, and the proportion of consumption of urban and rural residents has slowed down. After entering the new normal state of the economy, the economic industrial structure has been adjusted continuously. The proportion of the third industry and the living electricity of urban and rural residents has increased rapidly, reaching 14% and 13.6% respectively in 2017. The United States power report of the year 2016 shows that the electricity consumption of industrial, commercial and residential in the United States is 25%, 35%, 36.2%, and the per capita consumption of electricity is 4372 kwh / year, and the consumption of electricity in the world is about 25%. In 2016, China's per capita electricity consumption was only 584 kwh / year, and the third industry and urban and rural residents had a certain gap compared to developed countries. With the adjustment of industrial structure, urbanization and the improvement of living standards, the impact of the third industry and household electricity consumption on the whole society will continue to rise.

  Year-on-year growth rate of energy consumption in sub industry

Power consumption ratio in sub industry

  Since 2012, the elasticity coefficient of power consumption in China has maintained a level less than 1, which is due to the adjustment of the second industrial structure to the energy saving type, the transformation of electrification to the higher level, and the increasing efficiency of electricity consumption. The electricity consumption elasticity coefficient of the first industry is more than 1, mainly due to the low level of agricultural electrification in China, and is in the stage of rapid development. The power consumption elasticity coefficient of the third industry is more than 1, which is mainly due to the obvious substitution effect of electric energy in the transportation industry; the rapid development of commercial, financial and public utilities; the role of electricity in environmental protection and sustainable development is becoming increasingly prominent.

  Proportion of electricity consumption in fine industry in November 2017

Power consumption elasticity coefficient of sub industry

  (two) equivalent thermal power installed capacity and utilization hours: a new perspective allows data to be clear at a glance.

  At the end of 2017, the installed capacity of full bore power generation reached 1 billion 777 million kilowatts, up 7.6% over the same period last year. Among them, 1 billion 106 million kilowatts of thermal power, 340 million kilowatts of hydropower (313 million kilowatts of conventional hydropower, 28 million 500 thousand kilowatts for pumped storage), 35 million 820 thousand kilowatts of nuclear power, 164 million kilowatts of wind power and 130 million kilowatts of solar energy. New installed capacity of 133 million 720 thousand kilowatts, of which 87 million 940 thousand kilowatts of renewable energy installed capacity, accounting for 65.8%. Due to the different hours of different types of power generation, the power generation capacity of different types of units is different. In order to facilitate the study of power supply capacity, on the premise of no large fluctuation in the proportion of each type of power generation equipment, we convert all types of power generation installed capacity to equivalent thermal power installed capacity based on the use hours of each type of power generation in 2017 as the basis.

  In the 2018-2019 year, the utilization rate of power generation equipment is expected to improve year by year, with a slight decrease in 2020. Since 2014, the growth rate of equivalent thermal power installed and time weighted equivalent thermal power installations has been higher than that of power generation, and the utilization rate of power generation equipment has been decreasing year by year. At the end of 2017, the equivalent thermal power installed capacity of 1 billion 570 million kilowatts was 5.3%, the time - weighted growth rate was 6.3%, which was 6.5% lower than the growth rate, and the utilization rate of power generation equipment began to improve. According to our power supply forecast data, the growth rate of the weighted equivalent thermal power installed at 2018-2020 years is 5.1%, 5.1% and 5.7% respectively, and the growth rate is 5.9%, 5.8% and 5.6% respectively. Therefore, the utilization rate of power generation equipment in 2018-2019 years will be improved year by year compared with 2017, and it will drop slightly in 2020.

  Equivalent thermal power installed capacity (100 million kilowatts)

  It is predicted that the equivalent utilization hours of 2018-2020 years are 4227, 4253 and 4246, respectively, which are better than 4194 hours in 2017. In the 2011-2016 year, the number of hours of equivalent installed utilization decreased year by year, and 2017-2020E began to hit bottom. From the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in the country, the period of 2011-2020E years has been almost continuously declining, mainly due to the increase of the utilization of renewable energy units with lower hours and the average utilization hours of the national power generation equipment. In fact, the number of hours spent on thermal power, nuclear power, wind power and solar power started to pick up in 2017. In summary, the equivalent installed utilization hours can more accurately measure the utilization rate of power generation equipment.

  Equivalent installed use hours (hours)

  Renewable energy and non renewable energy consumption ratio